Opinion Polls and Seat Projections for India Elections 2024

As India gears up for its next general election, various media houses and polling agencies have been conducting opinion polls to gauge voting intentions. These polls provide valuable insights into the political landscape, party preferences, and potential seat allocations. In this article, we’ll explore the latest opinion poll results, seat projections, and key trends.

seats by constituency — Seats by Constituency

Voting Intentions: Who’s Leading?

National Democratic Alliance (NDA)

The NDA, led by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), is projected to secure a significant vote share. According to recent polls, the NDA’s vote share hovers around 42% to 46%¹ ² ³. This alliance includes several regional parties aligned with the BJP.

INDIA Bloc

The INDIA bloc, comprising opposition parties, is expected to secure a vote share of approximately 30% to 38%¹ ² ³. Key players in this bloc include the Indian National Congress (INC) and other regional parties.

Other Parties

Smaller parties and independent candidates are projected to receive a combined vote share of around 23%⁴. These parties play a crucial role in specific constituencies.

Seat Projections: Who’s Winning How Many?

NDA Seat Projections

INDIA Bloc Seat Projections

Others

Smaller parties and independent candidates are estimated to win a few seats, contributing to the overall tally.

Seats Projection from various sources

Various agency and their projections of seats are shown in the table below.

Polling Agency	Published	Sample Size	Margin of Error	NDA	INDIA	Others	Lead
ABP News-CVoter	April 2024	57,566	±3–5%	373	155	15	NDA
Times Now-ETG	April 2024	271,292	±3%	384	118	41	NDA
India TV-CNX	April 2024	179,190	–	399	113	31	NDA
News18	March 2024	118,616	±4%	411	105	27	NDA
ABP News-CVoter	March 2024	41,762	±5%	366	156	21	NDA
India TV-CNX	March 2024	162,900	±3%	378	98	67	NDA
Times Now-ETG	March 2024	323,357	±3%	358–398	110–130	40–50	NDA
Zee News-Matrize	February 2024	167,843	±2%	377	93	73	NDA
India Today-CVoter	February 2024	149,092	±3–5%	335	166	42	NDA
Times Now-ETG	February 2024	156,843	±2%	366	104	73	NDA
ABP-CVoter	December 2023	200,000	±3–5%	295–335	165–205	35–65	NDA
Times Now-ETG	December 2023	147,231	±3%	319–339	148–168	52–61	NDA
India TV-CNX	October 2023	54,250	±3%	315	172	56	NDA
Times Now-ETG	October 2023	135,100	±3%	297–317	165–185	57–65	NDA
August 2023	110,662	±3%	296–326	160–190	56–64	NDA
India Today-CVoter	August 2023	160,438	±3–5%	306	193	54	NDA
Times Now-ETG	July 2023	135,000	–	285-325	111-149	69-107	NDA
India TV-CNX	July 2023	44,548	–	318	175	50	NDA
Times Now-ETG	June 2023	135,000	–	300	130	113	NDA
Times Now-ETG	April 2023	90,000	–	292-338	106-144	105-145	NDA
India Today-CVoter	January 2023	140,917	±3–5%	298	153	92	NDA
India Today-CVoter	August 2022	122,016	–	286	146	111	NDA
India TV-Matrize	July 2022	34,000	–	362	97	84	NDA
India Today-CVoter	January 2022	60,141	–	296	127	120	NDA
India Today-Karvy	August 2021	14,559	–	298	105	140	NDA
India Today-Karvy	January 2021	12,232	–	321	93	129	NDA
India Today-Karvy	August 2020	12,021	–	316	93	134	NDA
India Today-Karvy	January 2020	12,141	–	303	108	132	NDA
ABP News-CVoter	January 2020	30,240	–	330	130	83	NDA
2019 election results	–	–	–	353	91	99	NDA

As the election draws closer, these opinion polls provide a snapshot of the political landscape. However, it’s essential to remember that actual results may vary due to local dynamics, candidate selection, and campaign strategies. Stay tuned for the final verdict as India heads to the polls!